Month: September 2026

We bring together a descriptive analysis of monthly counts of articles classified under probability on arXiv, exploratory detection of trend changes, sensitivity checks, an examination of additional breaks over 2023–2026, and a discussion of possible explanations, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of artificial intelligence. The analysis covers 120 consecutive months and 41 013 articles, including both primary and secondary classifications; the complete monthly counts are reproduced in Appendix A. The main model, a continuous piecewise-linear trend with monthly seasonal effects, selects breakpoints in October 2020, March 2023 and February 2026. These dates are not invariant across models: the most stable signal is a sharp acceleration in late 2025–early 2026, preceded by a slowdown and then a recovery whose dates are harder to pinpoint. Within the 2023–2026 window, an additional inflection in mid-2023 remains possible, whereas the segmentations of 2024–2025 are less stable. The aggregate series cannot attribute these developments to a particular cause or establish the persistence of the latest regime.

Further reading.

• ChatGPT prompted by the author of this blog
  arXiv math.PR submissions : Trends, structural breaks and possible explanations
  Analysis report - September 18, 2026
• Examples of documented or plausible AI effect on respected single authors
  Example 1 Example 2 Example 3 Example 4
  zbMATH covering arXiv preprints (September 2026)
• arXiv.math.PR authors in 2026
  The list sorted by number of papers submitted to arXiv.PR in 2026
  arXiv.PR (September 2026)