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Convergence of martingales

Les joueurs de dés, vers 1640, Georges de la Tour
Les joueurs de dés (~1640). Georges de la Tour.

This tiny post is devoted to a proof of the almost sure convergence of martingales bounded in $\mathrm{L}^1$. This proof that we give below relies on the almost sure convergence of martingales bounded in $\mathrm{L}^2$, after a truncation step. In order to keep the martingale property after truncation, we truncate with a stopping time. The boundedness in $\mathrm{L}^1$ is used to show via the maximal inequality that the martingale is almost surely bounded. Note that this proof differs from the classical and historical proof from scratch which is based on up-crossing or oscillations.

The martingales are either in discrete time or in continuous time with continuous paths.

The theorem. Let $M={(M_t)}_{t\geq0}$ be a continuous martingale bounded in $\mathrm{L}^1$. Then there exists $M_\infty\in\mathrm{L}^1$ such that $\lim_{t\to\infty}M_t=M_\infty$ almost surely. Moreover the convergence holds in $\mathrm{L}^1$ if and only if $M$ is uniformly integrable.

A proof. The fact that $M_\infty\in\mathrm{L}^1$ follows without effort from the almost sure convergence, the boundedness in $\mathrm{L}^1$, and the Fatou lemma, namely
\[ \mathbb{E}(|M_\infty|) =\mathbb{E}(\varliminf_{t\to\infty}|M_t|) \leq\varliminf_{t\to\infty}\mathbb{E}(|M_t|) \leq C<\infty. \] Moreover, it is a general fact that a sequence of random variables that converges almost surely to a limit belonging to $\mathrm{L}^1$ does converge in $\mathrm{L}^1$ if and only if it is uniformly integrable.

It remains to prove a.s. convergence. By the Doob maximal inequality with $p=1$, and $r>0$,

$$\mathbb{P}\Bigr(\sup_{s\in[0,t]}|M_s|\geq r\Bigr) \leq\frac{\mathbb{E}(|M_t|)}{r}.$$
By monotone convergence, with $C:=\sup_{t\geq0}\mathbb{E}(|M_t|)<\infty$, for all $r>0$,
\[ \mathbb{P}\Bigr(\sup_{t\geq0}|M_t|\geq r\Bigr) \leq\frac{C}{r}. \]
It follows that \[\mathbb{P}\Bigr(\sup_{t\geq0}|M_t|=\infty\Bigr)\leq\lim_{r\to\infty}\mathbb{P}\Bigr(\sup_{t\geq0}|M_t|\geq r\Bigr)=0.\]
In other words almost surely ${(M_t)}_{t\geq0}$ is bounded.
As a consequence, on an almost sure event, say $\Omega’$, for large enough $n$,
\[ T_n:=\inf\{t\geq0:|M_t|\geq n\}=\infty. \]

On the other hand, by the Doob stopping theorem, for all $n\geq0$, ${(M_{t\wedge T_n})}_{t\geq0}$ is a martingale and $\sup_{t\geq0}|M_{t\wedge T_n}|\leq n$. Since it is bounded in $\mathrm{L}^2$, there exists $M^{(n)}_\infty\in\mathrm{L}^2$ such that $\lim_{t\to\infty}M_{t\wedge T_n}=M^{(n)}_\infty$ almost surely (and in $\mathrm{L}^2$ but this is useless here). Let us denote by $\Omega_n$ the almost sure event on which this convergence holds. Then, on the almost sure event $\Omega’\cap(\cap_n\Omega_n)$, we have, for all $m,n$, $M^{(n)}_\infty=M^{(m)}_\infty=:M_\infty$, and

\[ \lim_{t\to\infty}M_t=M_\infty. \]

About truncation. Truncation is very natural to increase integrability. It is for instance used in the proof of the strong law of large numbers for independent random variables in $\mathrm{L}^1$ in order to reduce the problem to variables in $\mathrm{L}^p$ with $p>1$, the case $p=4$ being particularly simple.

Final comments. The ingredients should be established before and without using this theorem namely maximal inequalities for martingales, almost sure convergence of martingales bounded in $\mathrm{L}^2$, and stopping theorem for martingales and arbitrary stopping times.

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